Views on our future
Lars Carlsson
Chairman, Intertanko

Athens March 2002
Views on shipping
”Shipping is lousy – and will remain lousy”
”Ship owners are their own worst enemies”
”Ship chartering: A rate and a date”

”Without ships – the world comes to a halt”
”God put raw materials and consuming areas well apart – with oceans in between”.
”To save 10% in production cost is impossible. In shipping – we do it”



“What we do not achieve today as to safety and quality in transportation, will be forced upon us tomorrow by people less competent and less motivated to make a good job out of it than us….”


Newbuilding prices
Ship building prices and values
Are we in a long term trend towards lower prices?
Efficiency increases
Currencies get lower
Over capacity – of everything
Orderbook and the effect of rule 13G 2002-2007
Orderbook Year when 13G Orderbook/13G
have repl. orderbook outphase -2007
VLCC 20% 2005 70%
Suezmax 24% 2005 80%
Aframax 23% 2007 90%
Panamax 19% 2007 50%
20-50 18% 2005 60%
5-20 5% 2003 10%

Ship building prices
Can anyone give me a good reason why prices should increase in the next few years?

Why did we order so much???

TANKER SERIOUS CASUALTIESBY FIRST EVENT CATEGORIESOIL TANKERS >6000 GRT
Sensitive areas – some examples
Sensitive areas - definition
Vulnerable ecology
Confined waters
Intense traffic
Sensitive areas – proactive measures
Traffic control
Manoeuvrability criteria
Redundancy criteria

We have our choices
Order ”cheap” ships
See market go down
Trade spot
Undermine our balance sheets
Compete by low cost
Lowered influence
Order redundant ships
High quality crews
Charter arrangements
Solid income/depr.
Compete by quality
Improved influence
Higher NB standards(supported by Intertanko, Union of Greek Shipowners, HK Shipowners´ Association, Intercargo, BIMCO, ICS)
Steel and coating is never as cheap as at the NB yard
Smart, high standard ships are cheap  - Ordered in low market - Well planned
- Well inspected - Good Class - Good reputation in market - Improved chance for long charter - Long life – better resale value - Good sleep at night
Smart NB standards
USD 2.000 per day extra earning capacity
=
NPV 9 million dollars
MT STENA VISION
Stena Vision
A good example of a double/double/double tanker
VISION for tankers
A globally respected and profitable industry based on long term, safe transportation solutions in close co-operation with other links in the safety chain

Safe Tanker earnings formula
Cargo earnings +
Safety earnings +++
Economic life ++


Tool to reach our vision:
TRANSPARENCY!
The political environment of Intertanko
Message: The tanker owners are here to do our share and an even better job 

Free Competition
Cleaner Seas
Safe Transport
CM Tx Blå liggande

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